SOUTH CAROLINA AND NEVADA VOTE – AT 11:30 A.M. ET:   This is a major political day.  The Republicans vote in the South Carolina primary.  In politics, South Carolina is sometimes called "the gateway to the South."  The Democrats caucus in Nevada.  The fear in the Clinton camp is that Bernie Sanders might upset Hillary in Nevada, casting even further doubt about her candidacy.

It is almost universally expected that Donald Trump will win the South Carolina Republican primary.  The question is, by how much?  Trump is called the frontrunner, but that's only because the anti-Trump vote is currently divided among five candidates – Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Bush, and Carson.  If Trump were running against just one candidate, the primary results might well be dramatically different. 

Trump is polling from the mid-thirties to the high-twenties in South Carolina.  If he comes in at the low end, that's not very impressive.  A frontrunner who consistently runs in, say, the low thirties, is not showing the kind of progress that leads to victory.

Watch for who comes in second and third, and how far apart they are.  It is expected, barring a big surprise, that Cruz and Rubio will occupy those positions, but the order is far from certain.  Some observers feel that Rubio has surged in recent days, as he did in New Hampshire. 

Super Tuesday is March 1st, right around the corner.  Will Trump get a big boost from South Carolina today, or will pundits start wondering whether he's hit a ceiling?  Will the guy in second place today go into Super Tuesday as the pundit-anointed "main challenger" to Trump? 

On the Dem side, the Nevada caucuses today will lead to the Democratic South Carolina primary next Saturday.  Polls show that Bernie can possibly take Nevada, although not by much.  But Hillary continues to hold a commanding lead in South Carolina, with its large African-American population.  That lead has narrowed over the weeks.  The key:  Will a Bernie victory today lead to further erosion by Hillary in next week's South Carolina vote?  If that happens, can Hillary still make a serious case for the nomination?

Joe Biden waits in the wings.

Mike Bloomberg waits in the wings. 

Watch those wings carefully.  Americans do not, right now, seem thrilled by their choices.

February 20, 2016